Consider this mortgage-rate review by HouseJet your friendly wake-up call.

If you’re buying, selling, or just trying to stay sane in today’s housing market, the mortgage rate story matters. The truth is, rates have climbed dramatically since late 2022, fueled by inflation, Federal Reserve rate hikes, and rising bond yields.

As of mid-September 2025, the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage sits around 6.27%. Fifteen-year fixed loans are a little lower, but still far from the “cheap money” era many of us got used to just a few short years ago.

The only good news? Rates have eased slightly from their recent highs thanks to cooling inflation, a softer job market, and growing expectations that the Fed may soon stop tightening—or even continue to cut rates.

A Quick History Lesson

Let’s rewind for some perspective. Before 2020, 30-year fixed mortgage rates generally hovered between 3% and 4%. During COVID, they dipped even lower as the Fed flooded the system with stimulus.

That all changed in 2022. Inflation spiked, the Fed raised short-term rates aggressively, and bond yields jumped. Mortgage rates followed—shooting past 6%, even hitting 7%-plus at times.

Through 2023 and early 2024, rates stayed high and volatile. Only by late 2024 and into 2025 did we see some moderation, as inflation cooled and the Fed hinted at easing up. Still, today’s rates remain much higher than what buyers enjoyed just a few years ago and they are likely to remain in this range for the time being.

What’s Next for 2025 and 2026?

So where are rates headed? Economists and housing analysts see only gradual improvement.

• Fannie Mae expects the 30-year fixed to land around 6.4% by the end of 2025, and closer to 6.0% in 2026.
  
  
• The National Association of Realtors (NAR) has a similar outlook, calling for rates to average about 6.0% in 2025.

Translation: we may see rates edge lower over time, but don’t count on a return to 3% or 4% mortgages anytime soon. In fact, you may not want to count on that happening again…ever.

What Buyers Can Expect

For the rest of 2025, most forecasts suggest rates will hover between 6.3% and 6.6%, with the chance of dipping under 6.2% if inflation cools faster than expected.

Looking into 2026, rates could inch lower to 6.0% or just below—but that’s not guaranteed. If inflation flares back up, or if the Fed has to stay hawkish, mortgage costs could stick stubbornly in the low-to-mid 6% range.

Why It’s Still a Good Time to Buy

High rates may feel discouraging, but they’re not the whole story. Homeownership still offers unique benefits.

Here’s how Mike Oddo, CEO of HouseJet, puts it:

“Even with today’s rates higher than they were last year, they remain low by historic standards. When you buy a home, you’re not just buying a structure—you’re buying a place where families grow and memories are made. Locking in today’s rates lets you start building equity, gain stability, and protect yourself from rising rents and accelerating home prices. Waiting could end up costing you more than acting now.”

In other words, don’t let interest rates be the only factor in your decision. Home values and rents are still trending upward, and sitting on the sidelines could mean missing out.

Risks That Could Keep Rates High

Of course, there are a few wild cards that could keep rates from falling much:

• Sticky inflation – If it doesn’t retreat toward 2%, mortgage rates may stay elevated.
  
  
• A hawkish Fed – More hikes or delayed cuts would keep borrowing expensive.
  
  
• Global shocks – Energy spikes, supply chain issues, or geopolitical unrest could push investors toward higher risk premiums.
  
  
• Construction costs – If building remains expensive, housing supply stays tight, and affordability remains a challenge—even with lower rates.
  
  

What This Means for You

So, what’s the smart move?

• If you qualify for a mortgage today and find a home you love, don’t wait around for rates to magically drop by 1–2%. That may never happen again.
  
  
• Consider creative options: adjustable-rate mortgages, shorter loan terms, or rate buydowns. You can still get a very competitive rate and home payment with one of these approaches.
  
  
• Plan for higher monthly payments, and make sure your budget has a cushion.
  
  

Yes, rates are higher than in recent memory—but compared to the 1980s, 1990s, or early 2000s, they’re still relatively moderate.

Final Thoughts

Here’s the bottom line as HouseJet sees it:

• Rates are higher than the pandemic lows.
  
  
• They’ve come down a little from their worst peaks.
  
  
• They’ll likely ease more in 2026—but only slightly.
• The danger in waiting to buy isn’t that home prices are going to go down or up. That takes months. The real danger in waiting is that a quick increase in interest rates can erode your buying power in a day.
  
  

Waiting for the “perfect” moment could cost you in rising home prices, higher rents, or simply lost time. If you’re ready and able, this may still be the right time to move forward.

Wally Bressler, Real Estate Industry Veteran and Market Expert

Contributing Writer from HouseJet

9/22/2025